Key takeaway 2: Retention risk surfaces earliest with the manager – so that's where the framework needs to live
By the time a retention risk reaches a reward team or a people partner, it's usually arrived with an offer letter for a role elsewhere.
That's the worst possible moment to make a good, objective decision. So, finding the risk earlier is what makes it possible for reward to step in effectively.
The earliest signal almost always sits with the direct manager. They’re the one who sees the day-to-day work, hears the frustrations, is trusted with progression goals, and so on.
Which means the frameworks, the language, the tools for having these conversations all need to be in managers' hands – not locked centrally in total rewards. That means focusing on conversation guides, merit cycle support, total rewards overviews managers feel actually able to explain, and training on how to surface and respond to risk early.
But, there is one caveat: all of this only works if the manager-employee relationship is strong. Where that bond hasn't formed – like a new manager who hasn't yet built trust with their team – risk often never surfaces at all until it's too late.